Predicting the 2026 Academy Awards
It’s Oscar week, and here at Watching Movies this is our Super Bowl, Christmas, and birthday in one. The show is this Sunday, March 15th, and that is very late to be celebrating the films of 2025. Alas, we’re thrilled to finally roll out the red carpet.
Two months ago we predicted the Golden Globe film winners and did pretty well, correctly guessing 13 out of the 15 movie awards. Our batting average for the Oscars probably won’t be as high, because many of the categories this year are extremely hard to predict for the first time in years. It’s a challenge for this exercise while also being exciting to have a real race.
Twenty twenty-five was a pretty terrific year in movies. Five out of the 10 Best Picture nominees were in my top 10 of the year, and that’s rarely the case. Because I’ve only seen 1/15 I am omitting the shorts, but I will say the nominated short film “The Singers” is available on Netflix, and I thought it was wonderful.
So, at imminent risk of professionally humiliating myself with what could be a disastrous display of Oscar prognostication, here are the Echo’s predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
For months and months of awards season this was Timothee Chalamet’s in a walk. He could still win, but the landscape has changed. Chalamet won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, and then something absolutely insane happened at the BAFTA Awards.
At the BAFTA’s this year a man with severe Tourette’s Syndrome, who was there because a movie about his life was nominated, yelled a racial slur while Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo were presenting an award. This is obviously an extremely complex and sensitive incident and not one we’re going to dive into at great length here.
However, the next weekend after the BAFTA’s Michael B. Jordan won the Screen Actor’s Guild Award in a surprise upset. Now, his dual performance as twin brothers was absolutely deserving of the award, but it is within the realm of possibility that the awful incident at the BAFTA’s had an impact on how people voted. And for the purpose of these predictions, I think it’s going to have an impact on the Oscars as well. Frankly, I hope it does.
Should Win: Michael B. Jordan
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Jessie Buckley has been waltzing her way through awards season collecting prize upon prize for her role in “Hamnet.” Then, she came for the cat people.
In a recent interview Jessie Buckley recounted a story of when she first moved in with the man who would become her husband and his two cats. Apparently the cats didn’t take too kindly to her at first, and one would even defecate on her pillow. She told him it’s her or the cats, and he had to choose. Sadly, this absolutely spineless human being chose her.
Now, will THIS revelation that the seemingly lovely Jessie Buckley is a cat-hating demon impact her Oscar chances? I don’t think so. There’s too many dog people in the world.
Should Win: Renate Reinsve
Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
So far this year Best Supporting Actor has gone to Skarsgard for the Golden Globes, Elordi for Critics Choice, and Penn for BAFTA and SAG. This race is a complete toss-up, but I think it’s Skarsgard or Penn. Everyone in this category is great, even Elordi for “Frankenstein,” a movie made for people with small brains. While it could go either way, Sean Penn has two Oscars already, and “Sentimental Value” has four acting nominations. This is the one it’s likely to win.
Should Win: Benicio del Toro
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgard
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Once again we have a two-way race between Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan. Teyana won the Globe, Madigan won at SAG. They’re two of the best performances of the year, absolute scene-stealers in both of their films. I’d be ecstatic about either winning. Amy Madigan is a veteran though, and she made an excellent and endearing speech at the SAG Awards. I predicted her at the Golden Globes and I was wrong, but I’m predicting her again now.
Should Win: Teyana Taylor
Will Win: Amy Madigan
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
It Was Just An Accident
The screenplay awards feel settled. “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” are the leading Best Picture contenders, they’ll win the writing awards, and I’ll be happy for both of them.
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
See last category.
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Best Animated Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
It’s not that I’m opposed to animated films as a matter of principle. “Flow” was in my top 10 movies of last year. “The Boy and the Heron” was the year before. But I’ll never watch any of these movies.
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Best International Feature Film
The Secret Agent, Brazil
It Was Just an Accident, France
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
This is such an excellent category. Two of these movies were in my top 10 of 2025. A part of me wonders if the recent conflict in Iran could make for a last minute surge of votes for “It Was Just an Accident.” It’s certainly possible, and the movie deserves it.
Outside of current events, this is a toss-up between “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value.” “The Secret Agent” has a lot to love, especially the last 30 minutes, but it’s slower paced than one might expect, especially if you’re watching at home. I think “Sentimental Value” will have a slight edge, but this one is a coin flip.
Should Win: Sentimental Value
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Best Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
This is a brand new category! That means we have no context clues for how the Academy tends to vote for it or even what criteria they might use. “Marty Supreme” had the most interesting casting of last year, recruiting non-actors and celebrities from other industries outside of the movie business. It seems silly that it wouldn’t win, but “Sinners” is going to get a lot of love on Sunday and I think this award gets caught up in it.. I would be thrilled to be surprised.
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Will Win: Sinners
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
This is another exciting race! We can dismiss “Frankenstein” and “Marty Supreme,” they should be happy to be nominated. “One Battle After Another” was shot on VistaVision, a largely forgotten film stock. Much hay has been made about how they shot that car chase scene, and the movie looks excellent. I don’t think it’s winning though.
“Train Dreams” is outright the most beautiful looking of these films. Most shots look like paintings. It’s a shame most people had to see it straight to Netflix, but it still looks phenomenal. This is the type of movie that used to win this award.
“Sinners,” however, gives Oscar voters the chance to make history. This is only the fourth time a woman has been nominated for Cinematography. It’s the first time a woman of color has been nominated. I think it’ll be the first time a woman wins.
Should Win: Train Dreams
Will Win: Sinners
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
This is James Cameron we’re talking about here.
Should Win: James Cameron
Will Win: James Cameron
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
I didn’t like “Frankenstein,” but the costumes were awesome. To quote our dear departed Aretha Franklin, “Great gowns. Beautiful gowns.”
Should Win: Frankenstein
Will Win: Frankenstein
Best Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
“Sirāt” is an underseen film about raves in the desert, and if you see it you better have a nice sound system in your home. However, fast cars go “VROOM.”
Should Win: Sirāt
Will Win: F1
Best Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
“One Battle After Another” is two hours and 40 minutes long, and it absolutely flies by. Voters won’t forget that.
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Best Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
It’s really going to annoy me when “Frankenstein” wins this. I actively dislike the production design. Dr. Frankenstein’s office, as I’ve said before, looks like goth “Wicked.” It’s tacky and it looks fake. The ship is cool, I’ll give them that.
Meanwhile, “Marty Supreme” recreated 1950s New York with such depth it feels like you’re there. I hate that it’s not going to win.
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Will Win: Frankenstein
Best Original Song
“Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You,” Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams,” Train Dreams
Nick Cave is nominated for an Oscar, and I think that’s cool. Diane Warren is about to become the most nominated person ever without a win. The song from “Sinners” is actually good and is featured in the most audacious scene in the movie. None of them have a chance. It’s “Golden.”
Should Win: “I Lied to You”
Will Win: “Golden”
Best Documentary
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
I must confess I haven’t seen any of these. I still can’t believe “2000 Meters to Andriivka” didn’t get nominated. That’s bizarre. From what we have here, “The Perfect Neighbor” is the one that I’ve heard the most people talk about.
Will Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Best Makeup and
Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Sinners
Once again, it’s odd that “Weapons” didn’t get nominated here. That would have been a nice pairing with Amy Madigan for her predicted win as Aunt Gladys. “Frankenstein” won the BAFTA, and that’s what I’m going with.
Should Win: The Smashing Machine
Will Win: Frankenstein
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Congrats to Ludwig Goransson on what will most likely be his very well-deserved third Oscar for a score that absolutely burnt my movie theater to the ground. I’m literally listening to it while I write this.
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Best Director
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for 14 Oscars, and he’s never won a single one. This man wrote and directed “Boogie Nights” and “There Will Be Blood.” But, no black person has ever won the Academy Award for Best Director, and “Sinners” is going to take home a lot of awards on Sunday. I’m sticking with PTA, but I don’t feel great about it.
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Most of the time the award for Best Picture and Best Director go to the same film, but not always. The last year there was a split was when “CODA” won in 2021 for Picture and Jane Campion won Director for “Power of the Dog.” Before that it happened in 2018 when Alfonso Cuaron won Director for “Roma” and “Green Book” won Picture. This usually occurs because of ranked choice voting for Best Picture. The most widely-agreed upon movies tend to win.
So, what does that mean for this year? Well, once again it comes down to “Sinners” vs “One Battle.” The odds remain in the favor of “One Battle” based on its wins this year, but don’t be surprised if the night ends with Ryan Coogler holding an armful of Oscars.
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Will Win: One Battle After Another
The Academy Awards air this Sunday at 7 p.m. on ABC and Hulu.
