Predicting the 2026 Golden Globes
This Sunday evening the Golden Globes air on CBS and stream on Paramount+. While the show honors television, stand-up comedy, and even podcasts this year, our predictions for the award winners will stick to the movies.
Predicting the Golden Globes is a lot different than the Oscars. More than 10,000 actors, directors, screenwriters, and other film professionals vote for the Academy Awards. The Golden Globes are voted on by just 300 or so international journalists. That means that strange things can and often do happen.
With all that in mind, here are the nominees for each Golden Globe film category, a brief breakdown on the race, and the Cameron County Echo’s official predictions for who we think will win and who we think should win.
CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
F1 (Apple Original Films)
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS (Netflix)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING (Paramount Pictures)
SINNERS (Warner Bros. Pictures)
WEAPONS (Warner Bros. Pictures, New Line Cinema)
WICKED: FOR GOOD (Universal Pictures)
ZOOTOPIA 2 (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Let’s start with by far the stupidest award at the Golden Globes, the one for “Cinematic and Box Office Achievement.” Essentially, this is an award for best mainstream film. To paraphrase Don Draper, I thought that’s what the money was for.
The lineup is especially confounding this year because the nominations came out before “Avatar 3” even premiered and after the new “Mission: Impossible” flopped. So what box office achievement are we celebrating exactly?
With vague parameters of how this award even works, I’m leaning toward “Sinners.” There was a lot of press upon release that it didn’t make enough money in the first weekend to justify its budget. However, it legged out at the theaters over many weeks and became a box office sensation. My hope, and my prediction, is this is what they choose to reward.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: Sinners
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
JESSIE BUCKLEY (HAMNET)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE (DIE MY LOVE)
RENATE REINSVE (SENTIMENTAL VALUE)
JULIA ROBERTS (AFTER THE HUNT)
TESSA THOMPSON (HEDDA)
EVA VICTOR (SORRY, BABY)
I’m very happy to see Eva Victor here for “Sorry, Baby,” but I can’t imagine she has much of a chance. Renate Reinsve is spectacular in “Sentimental Value” and will win an Oscar someday, but I fear she’s going to be steamrolled by the Jessie Buckley train. That train should begin on Sunday and roll all the way to the Oscars.
Will win: Jessie Buckley
Should win: Renate Reinsve
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
JOEL EDGERTON (TRAIN DREAMS)
OSCAR ISAAC (FRANKENSTEIN)
DWAYNE JOHNSON (THE SMASHING MACHINE)
MICHAEL B. JORDAN (SINNERS)
WAGNER MOURA (THE SECRET AGENT)
JEREMY ALLEN WHITE (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE)
With the biggest contenders for Best Actor at the Oscars in Comedy/Musical, this is an interesting category. Six months ago most people would have guessed Dwayne Johnson and Jeremy Allen White would be duking it out for the win, but those campaigns seem to have fallen off a cliff. Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance as twin brothers in “Sinners” continues to be underrated by voters unfortunately. This category is likely to reflect the international voting body it represents and go for the admittedly great Wagner Moura in the perhaps slightly overrated “The Secret Agent.”
Will win: Wagner Moura
Should win: Michael B. Jordan
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
ROSE BYRNE (IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU)
CYNTHIA ERIVO (WICKED: FOR GOOD)
KATE HUDSON (SONG SUNG BLUE)
CHASE INFINITI (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
AMANDA SEYFRIED (THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE)
EMMA STONE (BUGONIA)
Let’s get something straight - “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is not a comedy or a musical. It’s actually one of the least enjoyable movies I watched all year. Still, what Rose Byrne is doing in it is undeniable. On performance alone, I give it up to her.
Will win: Rose Byrne
Should win: Rose Byrne
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (MARTY SUPREME)
GEORGE CLOONEY (JAY KELLY)
LEONARDO DICAPRIO (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
ETHAN HAWKE (BLUE MOON)
LEE BYUNG-HUN (NO OTHER CHOICE)
JESSE PLEMONS (BUGONIA)
Here is where we find our two leading Oscar contenders Timothee Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio going head-to-head for the first time this season. If Chalamet wins, and if he makes a good speech, I think he could win the Oscar. If he wins and makes another self-important speech about how he wants to be the Michael Jordan of acting like he did last year at the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, I think Oscar voters will decide they’d rather give DiCaprio Oscar number two. Still, I think the Globes are going to give Chalamet his shot.
Will win: Timothee Chalamet
Should win: Timothee Chalamet
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
EMILY BLUNT (THE SMASHING MACHINE)
ELLE FANNING (SENTIMENTAL VALUE)
ARIANA GRANDE (WICKED: FOR GOOD)
INGA IBSDOTTER LILLEAAS (SENTIMENTAL VALUE)
AMY MADIGAN (WEAPONS)
TEYANA TAYLOR (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
I’m happy to see the supporting actresses from “Sentimental Value” here because they are both terrific, but that also means they’ll probably cancel each other out. Blunt and Grande should be happy to be there, because this is a showdown between Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan, both of whom are electrifying in their respective films. While I’d just barely give it to Taylor, I think it’s going to be Madigan’s night. This is their chance to recognize “Weapons.”
Will win: Amy Madigan
Should win: Teyana Taylor
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
BENICIO DEL TORO (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
JACOB ELORDI (FRANKENSTEIN)
PAUL MESCAL (HAMNET)
SEAN PENN (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
ADAM SANDLER (JAY KELLY)
STELLAN SKARSGÅRD (SENTIMENTAL VALUE)
Walking out of “One Battle” most people I talked to were floored by Sean Penn’s Col. Lockjaw. But over the subsequent weeks, I think the same people decided that Benicio Del Toro was the character they liked more. If Penn didn’t have so many Oscars he’d be walking away with this, but I think voters will decide he’s had enough. With those two splitting votes, I think this is where Stellan Skarsgard pulls ahead. He’s talked about how a stroke a few years ago made it very difficult for him to remember lines while filming this movie. He actually wears a hidden earpiece now so he can get through the scenes, which is incredible considering how seamless the performance is. I believe the Globes will reward this.
Will win: Stellan Skarsgard
Should win: Sean Penn
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
ARCO (NEON)
DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA INFINITY CASTLE (Aniplex, Crunchyroll, Sony Pictures Entertainment)
ELIO (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS (Netflix)
LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN (GKIDS)
ZOOTOPIA 2 (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
I’m sorry, but I haven’t seen a single one of these movies.
Will win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should win: I do not care
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
ALEXANDRE DESPLAT (FRANKENSTEIN)
LUDWIG GÖRANSSON (SINNERS)
JONNY GREENWOOD (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
KANGDING RAY (SIRĀT)
MAX RICHTER (HAMNET)
HANS ZIMMER (F1)
This is an awesome category this year. It’s very cool to see “Sirat” nominated, with a score that is literally thumping rave techno music. I’d love to see this win. Any Hans Zimmer score is cause for celebration and the Jonny Greenwood music is incredibly unique. However, “Sinners” has the best music of any film overall this year, and I’d be shocked if it didn’t win this category.
Will win: Ludwig Goransson
Should win: Ludwig Goransson
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“DREAM AS ONE” –– AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
Music by: Miley Cyrus, Andrew Wyatt, Mark Ronson, Simon Franglen
Lyrics by: Miley Cyrus, Andrew Wyatt, Mark Ronson, Simon Franglen
“GOLDEN” –– KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
Music by: Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Park Hong Jun
Lyrics by: Kim Eun-jae (EJAE), Mark Sonnenblick
“I LIED TO YOU” –– SINNERS
Music by: Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig Göransson
Lyrics by: Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig Göransson
“NO PLACE LIKE HOME” –– WICKED: FOR GOOD
Music by: Stephen Schwartz
Lyrics by: Stephen Schwartz
“THE GIRL IN THE BUBBLE” –– WICKED: FOR GOOD
Music by: Stephen Schwartz
Lyrics by: Stephen Schwartz
“TRAIN DREAMS” –– TRAIN DREAMS
Music by: Nick Cave, Bryce Dessner
Lyrics by: Nick Cave
It would be nice to see the “Sinners” music recognized in this category as well, but I think I’m going to have to settle for just Score. This is “Golden”’s category to lose.
Will win - Golden
Should win - I Lied to You
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
RONALD BRONSTEIN, JOSH SAFDIE (MARTY SUPREME)
RYAN COOGLER (SINNERS)
JAFAR PANAHI (IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT)
ESKIL VOGT, JOACHIM TRIER (SENTIMENTAL VALUE)
CHLOÉ ZHAO, MAGGIE O’FARRELL (HAMNET)
The Globes are unique because while they separate Drama from Musical/Comedy, they combine Adapted and Original Screenplay. That means we could be seeing two future Oscar winners in these nominees. Paul Thomas Anderson has already adapted one Thomas Pynchon novel into what I think is his most unsuccessful film - “Inherent Vice.” So to see him try again and surpass all my high expectations by turning Pynchon’s “Vineland” into “One Battle” is an accomplishment the Globes should recognize.
Will win - Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win - Paul Thomas Anderson
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER)
RYAN COOGLER (SINNERS)
GUILLERMO DEL TORO (FRANKENSTEIN)
JAFAR PANAHI (IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT)
JOACHIM TRIER (SENTIMENTAL VALUE)
CHLOÉ ZHAO (HAMNET)
Jafar Panahi has an incredible personal story with “It Was Just an Accident.” The director was sentenced to one year in prison by the Iranian regime for creating propaganda against the state, presumably because of this movie. I could see people voting for it just because of that, but in the end I think it’s PTA’s year. They’ll likely recognize Panahi elsewhere.
Will win - Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win - Paul Thomas Anderson
BEST MOTION PICTURE – NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (NEON) – FRANCE
NO OTHER CHOICE (NEON) – SOUTH KOREA
THE SECRET AGENT (NEON) – BRAZIL
SENTIMENTAL VALUE (NEON) – NORWAY
SIRĀT (NEON) – SPAIN
THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB (WILLA) – TUNISIA
There are a lot of terrific films nominated here, and we’ll likely see two or three in the Oscar Best Picture lineup. My personal favorite is the nuanced, sad, and funny family drama “Sentimental Value,” but I think this is where Jafar Panahi gets to make a speech. His film is also excellent, and I hope we get to hear what he has to say.
Will win - It Was Just an AccidentShould win - Sentimental Value
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
FRANKENSTEIN (Netflix)
HAMNET (Focus Features)
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (NEON)
THE SECRET AGENT (NEON)
SENTIMENTAL VALUE (NEON)
SINNERS (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“Frankenstein” has no chance, and I think the three international films could split votes. That means it’s down to “Hamnet” and “Sinners”. I have to confess that I’m still avoiding “Hamnet” because I don’t want to cry in public. Reactions seem mixed because it either really works for people or it really doesn’t. “Sinners” would easily be my choice in this list, but the movie did a lot better in the US than it did internationally. I think “Hamnet” squeaks this one out.
Will win - Hamnet
Should win - Sinners
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
BLUE MOON (Sony Pictures Classics)
BUGONIA (Focus Features)
MARTY SUPREME (A24)
NO OTHER CHOICE (NEON)
NOUVELLE VAGUE (Netflix)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Two movies directed by Richard Linklater in this lineup is honestly wild, considering they are both pretty small films. If any movie on here had a chance against the “One Battle” freight train it’s “Marty Supreme,” but I just don’t see it happening. “One Battle After Another” can and should be the big winner on Sunday night.
Will win - One Battle After Another
Should win - One Battle After Another
The Golden Globes air Sunday, January 11th at 8 p.m. EST on CBS and Paramount+.
